Neither Utah or BYU Fans Will Be Pleased with the ESPN FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index went to work a couple of days ago making all sorts of preseason predictions for the upcoming college football season.
Sorting through conference odds, schedule difficulty, and who’s the outright statistical favorites, fans of the Cougars and Utes both had much to discuss after the FPI settled down.
BYU and Utah need no introduction to one another despite playing in the same conference for the first time since Toy Story 3 was in movie theaters.
The rivalry aspect is at an all-time high with the Big 12 title as a common goal amongst these squads and the drama will be plentiful as the season unfurls.
If you needed a preseason taste of football dramatics then look no further than ESPN FPI results for the Big 12.
Despite many Ute fans having high hopes for year #1 away from the PAC-12, The FPI algorithm carefully calculated that Utah wouldn’t fare as well as many are projecting.
Clocking in at 8.2 percent, the Utes were given the 5th best odds of winning the Big 12 placed narrowly behind Oklahoma State with Kansas, Kansas State, and former PAC-12 foe Arizona sitting in the top 3.
This likely came as a shock to Ute faithful as they return a lot of talent and expect health to finally be on their side.
In all fairness however, of the power 4 conferences, the Big 12 is certainly the most congested conference in terms of total odds.
For example, the Kansas Jayhawks, based on the ESPN FPI are projected to win the conference but are only given a 17.4 percent chance.
Oregon was given a 37.5 percent chance to take home the Big Ten.
Georgia netted a 32.8 percent chance to snatch the SEC.
Lastly, Florida State received a 26.2 percent chance to walk away with the ACC title.
Kansas and their 17.4 percent chance shows you that even with all the analysis and stats and algorithm-based tenacity the FPI may offer it’s still very much up for grabs.
For some teams.
On the flip side of the rivalry, it’s fair to assume that while the FPI has no favorites, it certainly doesn’t have any royal blue in its database.
The Cougars headed into year two of Big 12 play were awarded a less than one percent chance to walk away as Big 12 winners.
Half of a percent to be precise.
Despite the less than encouraging mark, BYU can take solace in the fact that they were not at the very bottom of the Big 12 projections.
The very bottom spot belongs to another Cougar, located in Houston.
Houston clocks in with a 0.3 percent chance.
Here are your full odds for the entirety of the Big 12 based on the ESPN FPI:
Kansas Jayhawks (17.4%)
Kansas State Wildcats (16%)
Arizona Wildcats (11.5%)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (8.5%)
Utah Utes (8.2%)
TCU Horned Frogs (7.9%)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7.6%)
UCF Knights (7%)
West Virginia Mountaineers (5%)
Colorado Buffaloes (4.1%)
Iowa State Cyclones (3.2%)
Baylor Bears (1.6%)
Arizona State Sun Devils (0.6%)
Cincinnati Bearcats (0.6%)
BYU Cougars (0.5%)
Houston Cougars (0.3%)
With such little room for error, I expect many of these positions to be inaccurate come seasons end, including a rise for both the Utes and Cougars.