An Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2032…Will it Hit Utah?

One of the more prominent stories in the headlines recently is the discovery of an asteroid that could intercept Earth’s orbit in 2032. While the details keep changing as more research is being conducted, the initial details claimed the asteroid had about a 1% chance of hitting the planet. 

That sounds like it won’t happen, which is probably true, but the chances of these types of asteroid colliding with the planet are usually much smaller, which is why the story is in the headlines.  

Details have changed since the initial discovery of the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, such as the chance of impact decreasing to 0.28%, but the chance of impact on the moon is about 1%.  

NASA’s website said, “Observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%. NASA’s planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory. With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%. The latest data will continue to be available at NASA JPL’s automated Sentry page.” 

Now here is the golden question. If, and I mean a big IF, the asteroid collides with Earth, what would be the damage? 

Fortunately, we have a pretty good idea thanks to the many researchers specialized with these types of matters. 

According to astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson, 2024 YR4 is expected to be about 50 to 100 meters in diameter. While that sounds small, the actual crater it would leave is about ten to 20 times the size of the asteroid.  

Should the asteroid collide with the planet, the crater would be about one to two kilometers, less than a mile. If this asteroid were to hit a city, it would be devastating for the city, but not world ending. 

Before you start preparing your shelters, think of it this way. Where is the most likely place the asteroid would make an impact? What is Earth’s surface mostly comprised of? The ocean. Also, Tyson said the impact corridor would be somewhere just south of the equator. 

Now if you take a look at a map, you may notice Utah is north of the equator. Meaning, if the asteroid were to collide with the planet, it would be nowhere near the beehive state. 

Remember, this rock has a less than 1% chance of hitting Earth, and even if it looked like the asteroid were to make impact, there are ways to fix that. 

NASA has methods of altering the trajectory of asteroids in case of emergencies, and Tyson says it's proven to work.  

So at the end of the day, 2032 is just going to be a normal year. That’s not counting the aliens and lizard people conquering the planet by then. Writers Note: JOKE JOKE JOKE JOKE.